MSTR
Strategy Inc - Class A Common Stock - Recent news and sentiment analysis
Default charts cover the last 24 hours by "day" period and sentiment shares compare positive vs. negative mentions after removing neutral posts.
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MSTR Price & Sentiment Over Time
Sentiment series exclude neutral posts so the green/red balance matches the bar on the home page; price points use the latest available quote.
if your STRATEGY was to go all in on MSTR calls like some were saying they were doing the last few d...
if your STRATEGY was to go all in on MSTR calls like some were saying they were doing the last few days, then you’re Saylor-made to be exit liquidity
# MSTR bros literally lost their damn minds along with their shirts lmaooo see you at 0 broskis 😎
# MSTR bros literally lost their damn minds along with their shirts lmaooo see you at 0 broskis 😎
bout to sell my mstr wtf is this
bout to sell my mstr wtf is this
MSTR not lookin good
Lol MSTR
Fuck it. Full porting MSTR 2028 calls. See you losers in hell.
Fuck it. Full porting MSTR 2028 calls. See you losers in hell.
The shorts are not quite going how they want them to, but it's OK because being long /NQ is more tha...
The shorts are not quite going how they want them to, but it's OK because being long /NQ is more than balancing it on the bottom line. And in the longer term, being short MSTR is just common sense.
Mstr dump wen
I should exit my mstr calls . JPM got BTC on lock rn
I should exit my mstr calls . JPM got BTC on lock rn
why tf is MSTR stuck at 172 while btc and SP500 tanks
why tf is MSTR stuck at 172 while btc and SP500 tanks
It would be great if the market could kill off mstr for the holidays
It would be great if the market could kill off mstr for the holidays
$MSTR quietly shitting itself in the corner. I just feel bad for the bagholders at this point. Imagi...
$MSTR quietly shitting itself in the corner. I just feel bad for the bagholders at this point. Imagine buying that shit at $500.
Gonna need MSTR to do a miracle and go to 150 please
Gonna need MSTR to do a miracle and go to 150 please
I would say MSTR but that would be too obvious
I would say MSTR but that would be too obvious
My $10k in MSTR $170 12/05 puts is coming back to $10k worth of puts at least
My $10k in MSTR $170 12/05 puts is coming back to $10k worth of puts at least
MSTR ofc
I dropped $10k on MSTR 12/05 Puts yesterday open. I want a cleared head then a stupid play like that...
I dropped $10k on MSTR 12/05 Puts yesterday open. I want a cleared head then a stupid play like that stonks only up as the economy shits the bed
Calculating the Strategy/MSTR Ponzi-Ratio Curve
https://preview.redd.it/dljv2g3t9e3g1.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d88408b1fd0f3f97ead34073367958e2b6a6fbd5 # We called it nine months ago Recap: Strategy (former MicroStrategy) finances Bitcoin Acquisitions with "preferred stocks" that are marketed looking like bonds with planned fixed dividends. Michael Saylor (Strategy CEO) also "promises" to never sell Bitcoin. This means that dividends can only be paid by raising more money from new investors. If this was secret it would be called a ponzi scheme, maybe the fact that it's clearly written down in the 8-K filings to the SEC makes this totally fine 🤡 https://preview.redd.it/zz9nc2wf5e3g1.png?width=740&format=png&auto=webp&s=623ccfd846819b6e8ea7c90ad49baf0874717e9b The reception to the post was overwhelmingly positive; also most people called it obvious, "everyone knows this, timing is the issue!" [Maybe everyone except this guy](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1p3i7c4/its_over_for_me/), but yeah. I'm a bit sorry for the guy, but hey he is looking for a regular job now, welcome to the world of people with regular jobs. In contrast, the media seemed to be quiet back then; until basically now, now that the MSTR price does look grim. Now also indices are considering to ban Strategy and the like, but it feels a little bit like the Michael Burry moment where the banks are finally valuating the credit swaps in his favor... The comments in that post were a Big Short meme fest, emphasizing the difficulty of the correct timing, not just the correct call in general. This is part of the inspiration for the calculation that I will show you now. It won't solve this issue, but it will give it some refinement. # The Strategy/MSTR Ponzi-Ratio Curve The question that I am asking here is: How much of the money raised is spent on BTC and how much is spent (or promised) on preferred stock dividends (the instruments used to raise the money)? Put this in a fraction and plot its trajectory over time, I present to you: the ponzi ratio curve! https://preview.redd.it/bx6118tv9e3g1.png?width=790&format=png&auto=webp&s=f97e2009e4f71f9f2dcd63472169f5705237410f To do this I have normalized everything to daily values. The actual dividend payments are quarterly, the BTC acquisitions and preferred stock issuances are mostly weekly. Currently Strategy promises dividends of \~700M$ yearly, so every day almost 2M$. (Note that at the time of my first post only STRK existed. Now there are five different versions of preferred stock that are used to cross finance each other, etc. I'd say it's a mechanism to find out how to cause the maximum confusion.) So the blue curves track the issuance volume of those preferred shares but they just show the resulting promised dividends. Note: Some money is also raised through diluting MSTR main shares. This is pictured here only as part of the BTC acquisitions. MSTR/A does not pay dividends so its not part of the blue curves. # Okay but what does that mean? More money for past investors, less for BTC. But you have to know, the promised fixed dividends, they are just that, promised. They look like a fixed coupon but they can simply decide not to pay them. My hypothesis for an end game scenario is: Once Strategy decides they do not pay dividends, their ability to raise any new money will end abpruptly. Without the ability to buy new BTC, their "business model" is dead. MSTR is not celebrated for having bitcoin, it is celebrated for buying bitcoin and pumping the price. The moment they just sit on this pile of bitcoin that doesn't generate any dividends while their fund raising stalls is the moment where people will realize that you need to also be able to sell an asset that you borrow against. If Kim Jong-un stole the Mona Lisa and hung it over his bed in Pyongyang, Morgan Stanley woud flip him the bird if he wanted to borrow some money against it. Because he can't sell it (to anyone with actual money), even though he might be the legal owner under North Korean law. Saylor did not steal the bitcoin, but he promised to never sell it. He said nothing is more worth than bitcoin, you never sell your bitcoin, yada, yada. So just by keeping his promise he can't sell; but even if he breaks it: What do you think will happen to the bitcoin price if its biggest advocate (and holder of 3%) decides that: "Now actually yeah, now is a good moment to sell your bictoin". So I am seeing a mexican standoff between Strategy and BTC. Strategy will simply try to wait it out, but the risk is that people sell their bitcoin before Strategy is forced to. Because Strategy has actual debt and can actually go bancrupt. We're probably speaking of 10k$-ish BTC, you have to decide how likely that is and how aware the crypto community will be of the trojan ponzi time bomb that Strategy gifted them. # Technical Stuff an Disclaimer I partly vibe coded this. I used ChatGPT-API to read out 8-K filings to get the preferred stock issuance timeline. Some numbers don't agree exactly with their dashbord on the website, but it's close enough that it shouldn't disturb the picture. But please double check everything yourself, here is the code that I used: [Google Colab / Jupyter Notebook](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZH6ZnhrOf-QJ3T7s1Pxax1uc97fWazEU/view?usp=sharing) # My Position https://preview.redd.it/rmqfx7l2le3g1.png?width=1093&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebaf560113140127b86364364ac57cb7a316149e
Why the fuck they down more than MSTR, when AMD is a real business as opposed to whatever it is Sayl...
Why the fuck they down more than MSTR, when AMD is a real business as opposed to whatever it is Saylor is pretending to do?
most irrelevant companies: amd, orcl, mstr, pltr
most irrelevant companies: amd, orcl, mstr, pltr
KSS boyyys. I lost 50% of my port to accidentally yoloing to mstr puts when it was too late, did a ...
KSS boyyys. I lost 50% of my port to accidentally yoloing to mstr puts when it was too late, did a high conviction earnings play on KSS, and it looks like it paid off and then some. Still would be up more if i was able to play goog like i intended to when it was 295. Sometimes the stocks that are not the most exciting are the ones that pay. Overall wall street has drastically underestimated retail sector strength in the past two quarters. (Port meaning options port. Im not that regarded)
NVDA and MSTR surely are on a competition
NVDA and MSTR surely are on a competition
What's the regarded thoughts on mstr? Looks like it's hitting some historic resistance
What's the regarded thoughts on mstr? Looks like it's hitting some historic resistance
Anyone know more about JP Morgan shorting MSTR? Could be the time to buy? https://www.tradingview...
Anyone know more about JP Morgan shorting MSTR? Could be the time to buy? https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:88d26dac5094b:0-jpmorgan-s-alleged-short-on-strategy-mstr-how-a-50-price-jump-could-spell-major-troubles/
Imagine scrolling through your watch list last Wednesday and hastily choosing MSTR over GOOG because...
Imagine scrolling through your watch list last Wednesday and hastily choosing MSTR over GOOG because it "looked good at the time". 🤣
Is there ANY price that MSTR is worth buying? What do they have to offer
Is there ANY price that MSTR is worth buying? What do they have to offer
There is never a good day to get MSTR calls.
There is never a good day to get MSTR calls.
Apparently y'day was not the day to get I to mstr calls 😂
Apparently y'day was not the day to get I to mstr calls 😂
MSTR looking hella weak on barely a BTC downtick. Hope we see corn break $80k and I get sent to valh...
MSTR looking hella weak on barely a BTC downtick. Hope we see corn break $80k and I get sent to valhalal
Mstr is the worst stock I’ve ever fucking seen Jesus Christ
Mstr is the worst stock I’ve ever fucking seen Jesus Christ
Haven’t seen any announcements on mstr
Haven’t seen any announcements on mstr
why would anyone buy crypto or MSTR . shit always dumps
why would anyone buy crypto or MSTR . shit always dumps
I’m holding MSTZ, but BTC broke above 88k and could retest 93k. So probably MSTR.
I’m holding MSTZ, but BTC broke above 88k and could retest 93k. So probably MSTR.
MSTR is in a wedge. Could go either way. PLTR looks like it's going back down.
MSTR is in a wedge. Could go either way. PLTR looks like it's going back down.
Gun to your head: MSTR calls or PLTR calls?
Gun to your head: MSTR calls or PLTR calls?
Lots of stocks would be considered way before MSTR will, they already fail several criteria with the...
Lots of stocks would be considered way before MSTR will, they already fail several criteria with the retarded monthly swing, debt to equity ratio, and non-profitability. It's literally about to get delisted from MSCI soon and you think SPY would even consider something as volatile as a company relying on buying bitcoin to pump the stock price? Lmao
MSTR inclusion in S&P 500 very very soon. (Let me cope since my calls down bad & I need to move out ...
MSTR inclusion in S&P 500 very very soon. (Let me cope since my calls down bad & I need to move out of my place asap that my cousin / his wife & baby live in)
Nah MSTR
I don’t even wanna say G. MSTR
I don’t even wanna say G. MSTR
So mstr won't anymore?
So no mstr in s&p500? Thank god. Shame i missed the sandisk pump.
So no mstr in s&p500? Thank god. Shame i missed the sandisk pump.
I literally bought calls (even on NFLX after I sold my puts last week on it) on everything minus NVD...
I literally bought calls (even on NFLX after I sold my puts last week on it) on everything minus NVDA, BABA, MSTR
MSTR down 50% YTD but has one good 5% pump day on a day where everything is pumping and people still...
MSTR down 50% YTD but has one good 5% pump day on a day where everything is pumping and people still think it’s a good bet
MSTR is cool
If you truly want to see bers miserable, buy mstr and tsla calls
If you truly want to see bers miserable, buy mstr and tsla calls
Holy shit mstr shorts
MSTR will be the only red stock tomorrow
MSTR will be the only red stock tomorrow
I am $MSTR Hodler
Long mstr for a crypto bounce but looking like BMNR is leading it, maybe a change tomorrow we shall ...
Long mstr for a crypto bounce but looking like BMNR is leading it, maybe a change tomorrow we shall see
My money is in MSTR getting dropped. Adobe has been beating earnings consistently for the last few y...
My money is in MSTR getting dropped. Adobe has been beating earnings consistently for the last few years micro tragedy doesn't seem like it's ever been profitable.