ALEX

**TL;DR:** Hycroft Mining (HYMC) is sitting on what could be the largest undeveloped silver deposit in the United States. Eric Sprott has poured $200M+ into this stock in 6 months and averaged up on a 1000% gain position at 1.5billion dollars. # Part 1: The Asset — What Hycroft Actually Has **Old NI 43-101 Resource (2023):** \- "Low grade pit/moose pasture" - Uneconomical to mine at low gold/silver spot prices, call options when spot rises - 10.5 million oz Gold - 400 million oz Silver - Location: Nevada, USA (fully permitted) **What's NOT in that number yet:** \- Two new high-grade silver discoveries (Brimstone & Vortex) - Exploration drilling has 90-100% hit rate — every hole finds ore - Deposit is "open in all directions" — no boundaries found yet - Geophysics confirmed a 650m x 425m anomaly at depth (Feeder Zone) **Estimated High-Grade resource (coming in Q1 2026 MRE):** \- 100-200+ million oz Silver at 400-500 g/t - For context: Cannington (world's largest silver mine) has \~700 Moz lifetime production **Alex Davidson (VP Exploration) — What He's Seeing:** > **The Geology (Why This Matters):** |Features Seen|What It Means| |:-|:-| |**Argentotetrahedrite**|Primary silver mineral — coarse-grained, high-grade| |**Chalcopyrite throughout**|Copper sulfide — indicates magmatic source| |**IP Anomaly at depth**|Large-scale intrusive body = potential feeder zone| |**90%+ hit rate over 14 months**|Not random — continuous mineralized system| |**Open in all directions**|No boundaries found — deposit keeps growing| **Key Drill Intercepts (2025):** |Hole|Zone|Interval|Grade|Significance| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |H25D-6070|Vortex|31m|438 g/t Ag|Highest-grade continuous intercept| |H25D-6068|Vortex|169m|Mineralized|Remarkable continuous zone| |Brimstone 2024|Brimstone|21m|2,400 g/t Ag|Bonanza grades| # Part 2: The Billionaire — Eric Sprott's $200M+ Bet Eric Sprott made a billion dollars on Kirkland Lake's Fosterville discovery. He's doing the same pattern here. **His Buying Pattern (June 2025 - Jan 2026):** Look up 2176423 Ontario Ltd sec4 filing |Date|Shares|Price|Amount|Cumulative Cost|Mkt Value @ Date|What Might Be Known| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |Jun 2025|6.35M|$3.50|$22M|$22M|$22M|*Initial thesis high grade discovery forming*| |Sep 2025|9.34M|$4.28|$40M|$62M|$67M|*IP survey confirms feeder zone*| |Oct 2025|7.69M|$6.50|$50M|$112M|$152M|*Early Brimstone drill results*| |Nov 2025|1.90M|$9.00|$17M|$129M|$228M|*Met study: 93% Ag recovery*| |**Dec 3**|2.34M|$10.30|$24M|$153M|$285M|*More Brimstone hits confirmed*| |**Dec 9**|480K|$11.88|$6M|$159M|$329M|—| |**Dec 12**|440K|$13.05|$6M|$165M|$370M|—| |**Dec 15**|—|—|—|—|—|📢 *Vortex H25D-6070 released (31m @ 438 g/t)*| |**Dec 17**|220K|$14.60|$3M|$168M|$418M|*Buying the Vortex news*| |**Dec 19**|150K|$16.31|$2M|$170M|$477M|—| |**Dec 24**|700K|$23.64|$17M|$187M|$714M|*Brimstone assays returning internally*| |**Jan 8**|125K|$26.27|$3M|$190M|$794M|*Estimated resource update likely known*| |**Jan 13**|4.67M|$6.00|$28M|$218M|$1.18B|*All warrants exercised — blackout imminent*| |**Jan 14**|200K|$33.21|$7M|**$225M**|**$1.17B**|*Final buy before blackout*| **Total Invested:** \~$225M+ **Current Position:** 36.5 million shares (43% of company) **Current Value:** \~$1.64 Billion (at $45/share) **Conviction:** Eric exercised 4.67M warrants on Jan 13 2026, 20 months before expiration for 6$ wiring $30 million to Hycroft, he then **bought** another 200k shares on market open for 6m USD. **\~36m USD added to a 1.2b position, up 10x and still buying.** He's buying shares as drills are being pulled out of the ground, while he may not know the hard grade numbers, his team is more than likely inspecting every drill bit coming and he throws in millions as the drills leave the earth. At 40% owner, he is the company and sees everything. # Part 3: The Timeline — Incoming Mineral Resource Update (MRE) **Management Guidance:** \- "Resource update coming out in the first quarter" (Diane, Jan 20) - "Two very significant silver discoveries not yet in our resource" (Diane, Jan 20) **Expected MRE Release:** Jan 21-31 **What the MRE will likely show:** \- 100-200 Moz High-Grade Silver (at 400+ g/t) - Separated reporting of High-Grade vs Low-Grade domains - "Open in all directions" exploration target statement **Government:** \- Silver has been added as a critical mineral for solar, EVs, and military electronics - Hycroft is 100% US-based — no China/Russia exposure - DOE loan program or strategic reserve purchase could be announced # Part 4: The Catalysts — What's Coming |Catalyst|Timing|Impact| |:-|:-|:-| |MRE Update (High-Grade)|Jan 27-31|\+50-100%| |Government Support Announcement|Q1-Q2 2026|\+30-50%| |Pre-Feasibility Study|H2 2026|\+20-30%| |Takeout Offer|2026-2027|\+30%+| **The Development Path (If High-Grade Proven):** `HG MRE Confirmed → Starter Mine → Immediate Cash Flow → No Dilution → Funds $1B Processing CAPEX` |Step|What Happens| |:-|:-| |**1. HG MRE releases**|100-200+ Moz @ 400+ g/t confirmed| |**2. Starter mine approved**|Small open pit on Brimstone/Vortex (confirmed in interviews)| |**3. Heap leach oxide cap**|Quick cash flow from existing infrastructure| |**4. Revenue funds development**|Internal funding = no dilution| |**5. Build sulfide processing**|Roaster or POX facility for high-grade| **The Barrick Option (Why Takeover Makes Sense):** |Factor|Significance| |:-|:-| |**Barrick's Turquoise Ridge**|Next door in Nevada — literally across the fence| |**Under-utilized roasters**|Barrick has excess roasting capacity| |**HYMC's sulfide ore**|Perfect feed for Barrick's roasters| |**No new CAPEX needed**|Truck ore to existing facility| |**Eric's exit strategy**|He's done this before — position for takeout| **Bottom line**: If the high-grade is real, Hycroft either: 1. **Self-funds** with starter mine cash flow (no dilution), or 2. **Gets acquired** by Barrick who needs feed for their roasters Either path = massive upside from $45. # Part 5: The Shareholding Structure — Why There Are No Sell-Offs **Major Shareholders (SEC Filings):** |Owner|Shares|% Ownership|Type| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |Eric Sprott (2176423 Ontario)|36,453,704|41.2%|Strategic| |Tribeca Investment Partners|6,615,366|7.9%|Institutional| |BlackRock Investment Management (UK)|6,000,000|7.4%|Institutional| |Schroder Investment Management|—|\~%|Institutional| |Franklin Equity Group|—|\~%|Institutional| |**Tier 1 Total**|—|**56.8%**|—| |Owner|Shares|% Ownership|Type| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |Libra Advisors LLC|—|\~%|Institutional| |APAC Resources Limited|—|\~%|Institutional| |Regal Funds Management|—|\~%|Institutional| |Helikon Investments Limited|—|\~%|Institutional| |Other Institutional + Insiders|—|\~%|Mixed| |**Tier 2 Total**|—|**24.9%**|—| |Summary|%| |:-|:-| |**Total Institutional Ownership**|**81.7%**| |**True Retail Float**|**\~18.3%**| **Why This Structure Matters:** 1. **Sprott is Locked (41%)** — He can't sell, >10% owner means he has a 6 month lockup and selling any meaningful position will crash the stock. He's still buying. His only exit is a full takeover which he always aims for in the past 2. **BlackRock's 6M Share Position** — This isn't a passive index fund holding and rumoured to be Evy Hambro UK team. BlackRock actively chose to hold 7.4% of a junior miner exploration on a conviction fund/client account. 3. **Tribeca (7.9%)** — Australian hedge fund specializing in natural resources. They're long-term holders, not day traders. 4. **81.7% Institutional** — Only \~18% of shares are held by retail. When institutions own this much and none are selling, there's no supply. **The Price Dynamics:** |Factor|Effect| |:-|:-| |Low float (\~30M shares)|Small buying pressure = big price moves (what we're seeing)| |Sprott adding, not selling|Largest holder is a buyer| |No short-term flippers|Patient, thesis-driven holders| **Why the Stock Doesn't Sell Off:** When a stock rises 13x (from $3.50 to $45), you normally see profit-taking. Not here. Why? * **Sprott's cost basis is \~$5/share** — He's up 9x and still buying at $33. No exit pressure. * **Institutions bought for the takeover** — They're not selling before the a major is forced to buy # Part 6: The Risks |Risk|Mitigation| |:-|:-| |MRE disappoints|Eric's buying pattern suggests otherwise| |Metallurgical issues|Nov 2025 study showed 93% Ag recovery + potential roasting feasibility| |Commodity price drop|Silver has structural deficit (5 years)| |Execution risk|Diane has track record (built Romarco)| |Dilution|Higher stock = less dilution needed| # Part 7: Price Targets |Scenario|Share Price|Multiple from $45| |:-|:-|:-| |MRE Disappointment|$30-35|\-20% to -30%| |MRE Meets Expectations|$70-90|1.5-2x| |MRE Beats Expectations|$100-130|2-3x| |Takeout (2026-2027)|$130-175|3-4x| # Positions \-11k in shares, 50 in Feb 25$ calls, 45 in May 30$ calls Up: \~+300k USD (Positions in SGD) [SGD - USD - SGD](https://preview.redd.it/inhny1s6smeg1.png?width=502&format=png&auto=webp&s=0355218a7e9680918048d3691e05c90a561f2c3d)