BULL
Webull Corporation - Class A Ordinary Shares - Recent news and sentiment analysis
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BULL Price & Sentiment Over Time
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The market is pricing in large default risk on ai infrastructure comparing it to fibre optic. I think real bear case will take until 2028
(BULL BTW read you lazy fcks.) Fellow Degens bears and priced in Doomers, Ive been researching investing and gambling on the ai infrastructure sector for the past year. In fact I’ve spent so much time on the sector that my poor university grades have slipped as I spend more and more hours focused on dilution credit risk contracted computing and options pricing rather than financial planning database coding and fictitious internal machinery financing. All of this is to say that the sector is wildly irrational seemingly misplacing multiple areas with the risk being beared by debt riddled but operational companies “Coughweave”. Speaking on neoclouds specifically and regarding debt weaves bond pricing you can see multiple bears jump the gun and declare black Monday prematurely. For large scale defaults these companies still need to take on a hell of a lot more debt. Personally I don’t own any of the Neoclouds at the moment as after I moved from micron to nebius I cashed out at around 208$ my pick for infrastructure is significantly de risked comparatively and already delivering meaningful revenue but more on that later. Now if we look at the pure financial picture core weave is running a debt to equity of 10.27x but before you get the pitchforks 16 billion of the 50 billion in debt is long term leases on infrastructure not high yield debt. So while Coreweave is in heaps of debt only 10b is due in the next 15 months 4.4b in 2026 and 6b in 2027 (found in the 10Q) Notably to pay this debt they’re still receiving vast funding with another 14 billion in long term financing being made available this year which adds to the current 3.5b in ever increasing quarterly cash flow. Essentially what I’m saying here is as a bear your chances of a coreweave default in coming 2 year period is like betting on the housing market to collapse but in 2003 and as they famously say the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent, from what were seeing in the media and the market since June, things can get far far more irrational than you can currently claim they are. Now for those familiar with the infrastructure space you will know of a type of company type of datacenter landlord. If not here’s the rundown, at the top of the ai money cycle is the Hyperscalers and the labs who need the compute, then you have the neoclouds and Hyperscalers filling the compute with the GPUS and finally the company’s supplying the data centre leases. They are the physical infrastructure power site and cooling that house the GPUS for the neoclouds and hyperscalers. Now these company’s APLD HUT8 WULF CIFR and CORZ move in direct relation to the neoclouds despite a glaring difference. They operate at incredibly high margins once sites and MWs are operational. The major glaring downside to the neoclouds is that they have to deal with GPU depreciation meaning they not only have to deal with their massive financing but they also have to get enough cash together to pay for more GPUs once the old ones are obsolete. My broader argument is that out of the AI infrastructure sector, the market is failing to differentiate between companies taking on significant technological and financing risks and those developing long lasting physical infrastructure backed by contracted revenue. This is where I think the bearish infrastructure argument begins to fall apart, particularly when looking at the timelines involved. Many of these companies are still in the construction phase of their vast multiple GW development pipelines, meaning their current financial statements reflect substantial capital expenditure without the full benefit of their future contracted revenue leading to them taking on large scale debt which is allowing the default risk idea to be sprung Take Applied Digital, for example. The company has secured long-term leases with hyperscale customers, yet its financial performance is still heavily influenced by the costs associated with constructing and financing its facilities. Applied Is down to $18 from its $50 high based purely on hype dying down and overblown macro factors. It has a market cap under 6 billion with nearly 12 billion in assets and 6 billion in debt. It has 600mw coming online and already fully financed which will produce over a billion dollars in yearly revenue at an 89% noi margin from q2 2027 so why is it priced like this ? Apld is much larger than its competitors being hut8 wulf cifr ect with more financed mw more delivered mw and a larger contract base 1.4 gw at 36 billion in revenue and a smallercloud business Chronoscale that serves to reap the benefits of cloud mw pricing with a contract from Microsoft. So why is APLD so devalued, my guess is the overblown risk associated with the 2 original customers being coreweave and oracle, but they have larger contracts with Meta which are incredibly low risk. This risk combines with the fact APLD will have to take on more debt to fund the meta sites, unfortunately for the bears this debt like almost all of APLDs debt isn’t due until after 2030 while they will reap rent revenue of over 2 and a half billion plus additional expansions from 2028 onwards. The market is systematically undervaluing APLD especially when Hut8 boasts a 2 billion dollar higher market cap despite having equal debt a smaller contract backlog and a canary in the coal mine for a tenant (Anthropic). The question Bears ask shouldn't simply be how much debt these companies have accumulated. It should be whether the cash flows generated by their contracted infrastructure will be sufficient to service that debt once the facilities become operational.This is why I think 2028 is such an important year for the sector. By then, a much larger proportion of contracted infrastructure should be operational, providing investors with a clearer picture of sustainable margins, debt coverage and the actual economics of these projects.That doesn't mean defaults are impossible before 2028. Companies with inadequate liquidity, uncontracted capacity or significant refinancing requirements could experience financial distress much sooner.But I think the market is making a mistake by extrapolating the risks associated with highly leveraged GPU operators across the entire AI infrastructure industry. I'm not arguing that AI infrastructure is cheap, nor that every company will survive. I'm arguing that the market is pricing certain infrastructure companies as though they are being run by inept fools and not experts who have projected these financials years in advance and know what they’re doing. TLDR Coreweave won’t go bankrupt tomorrow, Datacenter landlords are undervalued and imo the unicorns of the market with an actual road to profit for shareholders mirroring memory last year. APLD is beaten down despite great numbers and forecasts with 22% short float 4 days to cover and a Ceo and co founder who are both actively buying millions worth. positions are a couple thousand APLD shares and calls
BULL FLAG FORMING ON SPX 5m
BULL FLAG FORMING ON SPX 5m
BULL TRAP ACTIVATED
VERY CONCERN FOR BULL!
Need $bull to get some love
When is HOOD going to buy BULL? Lmao
When is HOOD going to buy BULL? Lmao
VERY CONCERN FOR BULL!
Me: (finally buys MU calls) Headlines: "THE GREATEST MEMORY BULL RUN IN HISTORY.......HAS ENDED."
Me: (finally buys MU calls) Headlines: "THE GREATEST MEMORY BULL RUN IN HISTORY.......HAS ENDED."
SPY 778 AND WE'RE TALKING ABOUT BULL TRAPS LMAOOOOO
SPY 778 AND WE'RE TALKING ABOUT BULL TRAPS LMAOOOOO
# THE BULL IS POZZED!
# THE BULL IS POZZED!
🐂🟩🔒EVERYDAY i Buy stock: $BULL 😤🚀 https://preview.redd.it/oqfpy35lwzuh1.jpeg?width=640&format...
🐂🟩🔒EVERYDAY i Buy stock: $BULL 😤🚀 https://preview.redd.it/oqfpy35lwzuh1.jpeg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3cc331a7351105dd55f8bd5e1881b95fedb3a998
$BULL did well. Booked my gains
$BULL did well. Booked my gains
Can I pretend my BULL contracts were bought this week instead of a few weeks ago? :*(
Can I pretend my BULL contracts were bought this week instead of a few weeks ago? :*(
BULL heading back to $7, still isn't late to get in!
BULL heading back to $7, still isn't late to get in!
YES HOOD SOFI BULL ONLY UP FROM HERE ^(plz)
YES HOOD SOFI BULL ONLY UP FROM HERE ^(plz)
NOT A BUBBLE: S&P 500 BULL MARKET GAINS 117% AS AI RALLY RAISES CONCENTRATION RISKS The S&P 500 has...
NOT A BUBBLE: S&P 500 BULL MARKET GAINS 117% AS AI RALLY RAISES CONCENTRATION RISKS The S&P 500 has surged 117% since October 2022, adding nearly $40 trillion in market value, largely driven by AI-related stocks. However, the equal-weight S&P 500 has underperformed by a record 52 percentage points, highlighting the rally's narrow leadership. With Nvidia up over 1,900% and Treasury yields recently hitting 5.34%, investors are increasingly focused on whether earnings growth can sustain the bull market.
😤🐂🟩💎🔒EVERYDAY i Buy stock: $BULL 🚀 https://preview.redd.it/zt72pie56fuh1.jpeg?width=640&forma...
😤🐂🟩💎🔒EVERYDAY i Buy stock: $BULL 🚀 https://preview.redd.it/zt72pie56fuh1.jpeg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ebc52d06b897780de4a60c9115fe4362b623f090
I’m bullish on BULL. 3k shares at 5.17
I’m bullish on BULL. 3k shares at 5.17
what gave you confidence in the BULL bounce black?
what gave you confidence in the BULL bounce black?
I moved 50% of my portfolio into it AH, so more than that now. I also hold 4k BULL calls - and bulls...
I moved 50% of my portfolio into it AH, so more than that now. I also hold 4k BULL calls - and bulls up \~5%, so my calls up \~40-60% tomorrow. Gonna be a great day! SOXL & BULL together will be over 100k gains
$BULL LFG
I'm long BULL call lol.
Lol, nah. They trying to capitalize on the china FUD. I bought BULL calls, was a kneejerk overreacti...
Lol, nah. They trying to capitalize on the china FUD. I bought BULL calls, was a kneejerk overreaction imo
HOOD doing BULL dirty.
HOOD doing BULL dirty.
Just got a notification that Robinhood is offering 3% bonus on transfers from WeBull specifically 😂 ...
Just got a notification that Robinhood is offering 3% bonus on transfers from WeBull specifically 😂 Vlad has $BULL puts? 👀
BULL TRAP
How am i supposed to hold calls overnight knowing that a stock can be down -20% like BULL
How am i supposed to hold calls overnight knowing that a stock can be down -20% like BULL
The slightest calming news for BULL and V
The slightest calming news for BULL and V
Whats worse the Chinese owning BULL or got a F-35 canopy from UPS?
Whats worse the Chinese owning BULL or got a F-35 canopy from UPS?
BULL? Overreaction?
Hmmm, wonder if nothing happens in a week or two buying start back up in $bull? I doubt Congress is ...
Hmmm, wonder if nothing happens in a week or two buying start back up in $bull? I doubt Congress is going to pass a bill specifically to close it down like tiktok, and I doubt executive cares. At most it'll be a rider in a megabill but nothing like that is gonna be passing anytime soon.
You know the old saying... Flat at night, FUKYOU FUCKING BULL SKUMM FUCK YOUUUUU!!!! I thinks it'...
You know the old saying... Flat at night, FUKYOU FUCKING BULL SKUMM FUCK YOUUUUU!!!! I thinks it's from old Yiddish or something.
If you even talked about $BULL on Reddit you can expect some dudes in windbreakers to kick in your d...
If you even talked about $BULL on Reddit you can expect some dudes in windbreakers to kick in your door. Wait... Shit.
Full port $BULL
How can you not be bullish on BULL? They are the number one Chinese spyware company in the world!
How can you not be bullish on BULL? They are the number one Chinese spyware company in the world!
Who the hell would actually buy $BULL rn?
Who the hell would actually buy $BULL rn?
We $BULL tomorrow. As per normal, bers are fuk.
We $BULL tomorrow. As per normal, bers are fuk.
Why is BULL down?
BULL was a buy at $4.93. :(
BULL was a buy at $4.93. :(
Some tard bought BULL 5P 10/9
Some tard bought BULL 5P 10/9
I can't believe BULL is Chinese. Thank gawd the US gov't committee investigated this after 2 years. ...
I can't believe BULL is Chinese. Thank gawd the US gov't committee investigated this after 2 years. I feel safer already.
$BULL had a nice dip over known info today. Happily bought more shares
$BULL had a nice dip over known info today. Happily bought more shares
Im not a BULL fan but headline move is such overreaction.
Im not a BULL fan but headline move is such overreaction.
Didn't someone say they full ported BULL last night? :vanish:
Didn't someone say they full ported BULL last night? :vanish:
God damn. RIP BULL holders.
Never go full Xi BULL
BULL TRAP
Congrats to the guy who said he loaded the boat on BULL at 4.99, read your comment at the gym this m...
Congrats to the guy who said he loaded the boat on BULL at 4.99, read your comment at the gym this morning and thought you’d get slaughtered by panicans at the open
$BULL SQUEEZING UP
Oh my large $BULL position is hurting today
Oh my large $BULL position is hurting today